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dangerous vs. safe ignorance

how to convince *not* other mathematicians, but uncle charlie?
what will get him to whole-heartedly embrace the correct concept?

literature search ...

find the sciam article?  at least cite it.

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0:  *not* logs; mom anecdote

1:  sampling variability:  johnny's grade dropped.  sales are down 3% from
    last month.

2:  LLN?

3:  IID:  gambling "hot streaks"

4:  my favorite medical-diagnosis bayes problem.  cite M&M.